The Washington Redskins have signed Pro Bowl tight end Jordan Reed to a five-year contract extension. The deal, which is reportedly worth $50m with $22m guaranteed, will keep the 25-year-old Reed in Washington through 2021.Reed, who was the teams third-round pick out of Florida in 2013, had his best season last year, with career highs in catches (87), yards (952) and touchdowns (11). He also had a big game in Washingtons post-season loss to Green Bay, catching nine passes for 120 yards and a touchdown.Despite his breakout season in 2015, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden believes Reed is only beginning to scratch the surface of his vast potential.He can get a lot better, thats the scary part, Gruden said. He is a very natural gifted route running tight end with natural hands and great ability to run after the catch. Reed (No 86) caught nine passes for 120 yards against Green Bay in the play-offs As he gets bigger, more confident, bigger frame as he works out with [strength and conditioning] coach [Mike] Clark in the weight room, hes going to be more of an impact in the running game which is only going to help him also in the passing game with the play actions.So hes going to keep getting better and better, got to keep in healthy, hes got to keep working and great things will be on the horizon for Jordan.The biggest concern to date with Reed is his ability stay healthy. He missed Week 5 and 6 of the 2015 season with a concussion and he has played in just 34 of 48 possible regular-season games to date in his career.Reed becomes the third tight end to sign a big-money extension in the NFL this off-season, following Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles (five years, $42.5m) and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs (five years, $46.8m). 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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been lighting up the NFL since returning from his early-season suspension, emerging as a top MVP candidate despite missing four games.The 39-year-old Brady ranks first overall in Total QBR, and has helped cast the Patriots in the role of most likely Super Bowl champion, at 32 percent according to ESPNs Football Power Index. That said, the data says New England should be thinking very long and hard about looking elsewhere to fill the starting QB role next season.The Patriots, more than any other team, have made a habit of paying for likely future production and not past success. And though Bradys contract would make it difficult for them to merely part ways (more on that in a minute), at 39 years old they undoubtedly know whats coming for Brady.Two of the most dominant quarterbacks of the past 20 years -- Brett Favre and Peyton Manning -- are, in fact, useful examples to project Bradys performance in the next few seasons. Favre, Manning and Kurt Warner join Brady in a rare group of players that even make it to this stage. Average quarterbacks rarely get a chance to continue to play past their mid-30s; once they show signs of decline, theyre replaced. What remains are the Favres, Peytons and Warners (and even Warner stepped away at the age of 38) of the NFL, great quarterbacks who can continue to rely on their ability to run an offense and take advantage of defenses, even as their deep throws lose a little of their zip. But even the greats will eventually fall, as the numbers demonstrate.Bradys performance at age 38 and up to his current age of 39.5 mirrors that of Manning at the same age. Brady has posted an average QBR of 70 during those years -- Mannings was 69. After age 39.5, however, Mannings performance declined sharply. For all of his games after the age of 39.5, he posted an average QBR of 49. The decline was part of a broader, ominous trend for Brady and older QBs.ESPN senior analytics specialist Brian Burke detailed this drop-off in a study for Advanced Football Analytics.All QBs who played when tthey were 38 years old had QBRs above 70 in between 50 and 70 percent of their games.ddddddddddddBy age 40, their chance of posting a QBR above 70 drops to below 5 percent. This is the range Brady will be in at the start of the 2017 season.Availability becomes a major issue as well.Again, looking at the group of QBs who were playing at the ages of 39 and 39.5, this group has a 71 percent chance of playing at least 10 more games. Once they get past 40 (where Brady will be when the 2017 season starts), that percentage drops by half. Only 35 percent who are playing past the age of 39.5 will play 10 or more games.Given the Patriots history of shedding iconic players (Lawyer Milloy, Logan Mankins, Randy Moss and Richard Seymour, to name a few), it shouldnt be a surprise if Brady is next on the chopping block, though his contract could give New England some pause. The Patriots tend to release or trade players at or near the end of their contracts so there is minimal, if any, dead money on the salary cap. But remember that Brady signed a new contract during this past offseason that included a $28 million bonus. By NFL cap rules, if the Patriots cut Brady after this season, they would carry a cap charge of $27 million -- nearly twice the price tag for keeping him ($14 million).That reality means, should Bradys performance decline as the data nearly guarantees it will, Patriots coach Bill Belichick could find himself in the difficult position of benching Brady for a younger arm. While Belichick has never been accused of being overly emotional about his roster decisions, there should be little doubt that the notion of benching Brady would be an especially delicate situation for the organization and its fan base.Whatever they decide, there is no reason to believe that Brady has the ability to beat the overwhelming trend of aging QBs. Father Time, as they say, is undefeated.For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.? ' ' '
